COVID-19 infection rate estimation

Team Lead: Navin Kashyap, Manjunath Krishnapur


This project aims to develop a reliable means of estimating the prevalence rate or infection rate of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 within a target population. This can be used as an epidemiological or public health tool to help inform policy decisions on the appropriate interventions to impose on that population. 

Current status

We have a working estimator that is hosted here:

At present, this estimator takes as input the time series formed by the number of hospitalized cases that test positive each day. The website hosting the estimator contains a basic description of the estimator. A report explaining how the estimator works is currently in preparation.

Next steps

We would like to improve the models on which our estimator is based, so as to have greater confidence in the estimates produced. But, more importantly, we would like to bring this tool to the attention of our policy makers.


  • Vinay Kumar B.R.
  • Jnaneshwar B.S.
  • V. Arvind Rameshwar
  • Anand Jerry George
  • Navin Kashyap
  • Manjunath Krishnapur

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